Predictive Analytics with Simulation Techniques
Simulation techniques are a powerful tool for prediction. Dr. Noel has been involved in numerous merger reviews, for example, where the central question is whether a proposed merger is or is not likely to result in higher prices to consumers post-merger. There are a variety of techniques for predicting what post-merger prices and outcomes will be, including merger simulations, merger simulation light, benchmarking, demand estimation, and other simulation-based methods. While these techniques are best known in the context of merger analyses, less known is the fact that these same basic techniques can be applied to other pursuits as well, including business strategy and planning. What will be the effect of a change in the product offering? Or in the opening of a new store? Or a change in the price of one or more products? Or in bundling strategy? Or in a rewards program? Dr. Noel has advised businesses on questions such as these, combining economic theory with modern statistical and econometric techniques, including regression and simulation techniques, to make forecasts and inform business strategy decisionmaking.