Big Data & Econometrics Case Experience

Econometric Merger Simulations

In a merger review before the European Commission involving two major book publishers. Dr. Noel and a team of Ph.D. economists performed a series of econometric merger simulations to evaluate the potential for post-merger unilateral effects. Dr. Noel estimated potential post-merger price increases in several scenarios, one that involved no divestitures of the merging companies' brands or business lines, and others that involved different sets of possible divestitures. The merger simulations showed that, when minimal divestitures were carried out, book prices were unlikely to increase post-merger. Sensitivity analyses and efficiencies analyses showed the same. The merger was ultimately approved by the European Commission, with minimal divestitures, in line with the analysis performed by Dr. Noel and the team.

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